Urban form, land use, and land cover change and their impact on carbon emissions in the metropolitan area of Monterrey.

Abstract

The process of rapid and uncontrolled urbanization related from intense economic growth periods have a strong relation with growing carbon emissions. Previous literature of urban form and CO2 emissions have focused on developed cities but mainly in Europe, USA, and China. This thesis analyses the urban expansion of the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey (MAM) from 1990 to 2019 in intervals of 5 years using satellite imagery and GIS to determine its relation to carbon emissions. The study considers population data, urban expansion, gross domestic product, motor vehicle inventory, vegetation displacement, and energy usage from residential and commercial sector as key variables to relate CO2 sink loss and CO2 emissions per period. Results shows that MAM increased 2.6 times its size from 30,761 hectares in 1990 to 80,962 hectares in 2019. The percentage of urban land use including MAM and peri urban areas of the 12 municipalities in 1990 was 5.09%, and in 2019 increased to 13.99%. It is estimated that a total of 28,393 hectares of vegetation was removed including: scrubs, pasture, forest, and agriculture meaning a loss of CO2 sink with a potential of absorption of 373,900 T CO2 a year. In terms of CO2 emissions, the average MAM CO2 emission per urban block in 2015 was 258 TCO2, also the average of TCO2 per hectare for residential and commercial use is 376 and 347, respectively. This study establish an historical baseline of carbon emissions due to urban land change and rapid urbanization since the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed and also gives the different lines of research that will serve to complement the investigation in order to achieve a metropolitan urban carbon budget for Mexican cities that guide future environmental policy.