The use of the analytic network process to predict the replacement of the gasoline engine

Abstract

The opinion of a single person in decision making can become insufficient when analyzing complex problems, especially those whose solutions can affect many others. Due to the above a discussion and interchange between the actors involved, which by their experience and knowledge can help to structure the problem and evaluate possible solutions, should be facilitate. The conflict arises when the decisions taken have not sustentation and the resolution is subject to the subjectivity and creativity of those involved, which can lead to inappropriate ways to ignore certain aspects of the problematic situation among other unwanted scenarios in the process of group decision making. Another important aspect to consider is foresight (a future vision), as it has gained importance in recent years. Nowadays it is common to find the appearance of foresight studies on topics such as technology, conflict resolution, regional development, or national and international economic dynamics.

In the process of group decision making, generally we use qualitative interventions (methods that give meaning to events and perceptions). And what is sought for study and analysis of this thesis is the use of the Analytic Network Process (ANP), a technique that use qualitative pair wise with quantitative methods (measured variables and methods that apply analysis using or generating reliable and valid). This in a foresight environment that will allow decisions to have sustentation based on mathematics and in this way to reduce subjectivity.

The purpose of this research is to make a prediction of which technology is going to replace the gasoline engine in the next 20 years. I will show a self-made model and use it following the ANP rules to reach my goal that is to state the technology and the time in which the replacement is going to take place.